Prediction without pretending the offseason is certainty
The preseason model starts with a multi-year measure of recent team strength, weighted most heavily toward the immediately preceding season. It then adjusts that foundation with returning production, current roster quality, quarterback outlook and transfer movement. Historical projections are designed to use only information that would have been available before that season began.
The rating is predictive rather than résumé-based. A team can project highly without having earned an in-season ranking yet; once games begin, the site’s separate in-season system increasingly replaces preseason expectation with actual results.
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